The impact of COVID-19 measures on intraday electricity load curves in the European Union: A panel approach

This paper examines the impact of the intensity of government measures introduced to reduce the spread of COVID-19 on intraday electricity load curves in 23 European countries. The econometric panel model used covers the entire period from the virus outbreak in Europe up to the release of several vaccines;therefore, the estimation considers the introduction, partial lifting, and reintroduction of the interventions. Based on the results, the impacts of the different stringency measures were similar in the 23 analysed EU member states. More stringent interventions had different effects at different times of day: the morning and evening peaks were significantly affected, as was every hour of the day. The impacts were nonlinear, meaning that different measures mutually amplified each other’s impact and led to more substantial changes in electricity consumption and citizens’ lives. The morning and evening peaks are also found to have decreased, causing a flattening of the load curves. In line with this result, the partial effect of an increase in the stringency index depends on the type of day (weekday or weekend), hour of the day, and initial stringency level. Overall, the lockdown measures led to a decrease in hourly electricity consumption of between 1% and 9% on weekdays and between 1% and 13% on weekends. Total daily consumption decreased by up to 9%. Understanding how hourly electricity demand reacts to different stringency measures provides valuable information in operation scheduling and capacity planning. More accurate demand forecasts can support trading decisions and help prevent extreme market mismatches.

Short- and long-term effects of COVID-19 on bicycle sharing usage.

Using panel regression methods, this paper investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted bicycle sharing system (BSS) ridership in Budapest. In particular, the paper aims to separate the effects of mobility and government restrictions on BSS ridership and analyse whether long-term positive effects are observable in this city. Results indicate that both mobility and government stringency measures significantly and positively affected BSS usage, particularly in residential areas and close to public parks. However, after the first wave of the pandemic passed and government measures were partially lifted, BSS ridership declined in line with the elimination of the restrictions. New users often churned after their first trial, and usage frequency dropped to lower levels than before the pandemic. This indicates that BSS was a valuable transportation mode during a pandemic, but a permanent increase in usage was not observed in Budapest despite a considerable price decrease in bicycle fares. The unsatisfactory experiences with this BSS, primarily due to heavy bike frames and solid rubber tires may be the cause of this. Our results prove the benefits of BSS in mitigating a pandemic but call the attention to the need to improve particular system characteristics that may undermine long-term ridership. These characteristics can be different for every BSS; hence, local market research is required. This limits the generalizability of the results.